Real Estate - The Global View

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Real Estate - The Global View

Introduction By: Martin Armstrong

all the people I have ever met, there is truly no one more experienced and keenly

tuned into the world real estate market than Petra Gajdosikova . Petra travels the

world actually checking out the markets firsthand instead of watching from some lofty

ivory tower never venturing out into the real world beyond the window. I have never

had much time for pretend analysts who have really done nothing, claiming they are wiser than

most, yet sit in some office and have never done much of anything real telling people when to

trade but have never traded. You might as well as a virgin for advice on sex.

It has been our clients that have forced me to be worldly in my ways. Actually traveling around

the globe and really kicking the tires educates one far beyond what they can read. One of the

most important aspects of REAL education is doing it – something we call experience. For 17

years Petra has worked around the world. She has dealt in actual properties on several

continents as a strategic investor gaining a real knowledge base that includes so many things

that are often just background noise. Having to deal with taxes, regulations, lawyers, and

governments on a global scale provides a contextual knowledge one cannot obtain in any book

or course. Petra’s view of the role of real estate in a new global world in search of assets is very

interesting, thought provoking, and in line with a monumental economic crisis we now face.

Petra has been a doer – not a pretender. I have used my persuasive “charm" to convince her

that she should share her knowledge before what might be the largest global readership

anywhere. So those who jump up and down screaming and yelling but have never bothered to

actually experience what they preach, Petra is anything but. I told her it took Milton Friedman to

drag me out of my shell. I am no Milton Friedman, but what the hell – I am the guy they said

manipulated the world economy, forecasted things to the specific day nobody else could and

that was all because I had too many clients around the world. So not being as famous as Milton,

yet nonetheless a notorious legend in the twisted minds of bureaucrats, she has agreed to share

her real world experience that has so impressed me – and that ain’t easy!

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Real Estate – A Vital Investment Sector

By: Martin Armstrong

HERE

is no question that real estate has been one of the five (5)

primary sectors within the economy. Real Estate speculation has been

systemic. In effect, it was the inspiration behind both the South Sea

Bubble and Mississippi Bubble of 1720. While I provided a forecast for

real estate of the United States in the issue of November 15

, 2009, I have

also written about the Athenian Real Estate Crisis and Speculative Bubble

during the 4

Century BC in the October 2010 issue.

Real Estate Bubbles often precede serious economic declines. The US Great Depression of the

1930s Market Correlation shows the layout of the various sectors. The commodities peaked with

the Great Bubble of 1919 and generally declined into 1932. The stock market bubble was

brewing headed into 1929 shifting from the Railroad stocks that peaked in 1907 to the first

Industrial stock boom led by the automobile industry. However, you will notice the biggest

bubble was in Real Estate (TOP LINE). The most famous Real Estate Bubble going straight into

1925 was the Florida Land Bubble. People were building places, selling them to other investors,

while there really was nobody actually living in a lot of the places. That was no different than the

Real Estate Bubbles of the 1790s.

I have written about the Copper Panic of 1789 which was a monetary crisis with the collapse in

the confidence on tangible coinage. This was followed by the Panic of 1792 and the

International Panic of 1796-1797, which were real estate bubbles just as any emerging market

0.5

128

512

US Great Depression Market Correlation

Dow

Silver

Wheat

Housing

Fed %

pg_0005

goes through including China in recent years. It is

always the same pattern. Keep in mind that the

origin of the New York Stock Exchange can be

traced to May 17

, 1792, when the Buttonwood

Agreement was then signed by 24 stock brokers

operating on the “curb" outside of 68 Wall Street in

New York City just under a buttonwood tree on

Wall Street. This group of stock brokers rented a

room in 1792 for $200 a month, which was located

at 40 Wall Street. It wasn’t until March 8

, 1817

that this group formally became known as the

"New York Stock & Exchange Board" electing

Anthony Stockholm to be its first president. So

these Panics of the 1790s can hardly be attributed

to being caused by “Wall Street" and reflect the

nature of ALL investment bubbles.

One of the great real estate speculations from the outset has rarely been even looked at. It was

the Washington, DC land Bubble that ended in the Panic of 1796-1797 that destroyed more

famous men than any other and landed more people in prison than any other bubble in history.

The speculator was James Greenleaf (1765-1843) who was a legend in his own time, yet whose

name is generally lost to history. Greenleaf may be very obscure, nonetheless, he established

operations in real estate in the District of

Columbia. George Washington expressed his

disapproval of Greenleaf’s methods in a

personal letter to Daniel Carroll (

1730-1796

who was one of the commissioners setting-

up the District Columbia and whose family

founded Georgetown University. George

Washington believed that the price James

Greenleaf was offering the commissioners

for land was far too low in his opinion, and

that Greenleaf he believed was obviously

planning to obtain a monopoly of the land

and make an "immense" profit on it to

establish the new capital.

James Greenleaf was appointed very early in

life in 1793 Consul of the United States to

Amsterdam. He was a

cousin (by marriage) of

John Adams

and a merchant with operations

pg_0006

in both New York and Amsterdam. The key to riches in those days was always being an

international merchant for they made good income on import & export, became natural bankers

with trading in currency, and emerged as the real movers & shakers of the 18

Century.

Amsterdam was also the center of stock trading where he became an avid speculator as well.

Greenleaf amassed a fortune in his international dealings and no doubt had a front row seat on

the next emerging market boom – the United States. There is documentary evidence showing

that Greenleaf understood the emerging market boom and relied upon his international

contacts to develop that boom.

Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson were real

adversaries. Nonetheless, they struck a deal to move

the nation's capital away from what Jefferson viewed

as the iniquitous New York City to the more virtuous

Virginia where the economy was still rooted in

agriculture. It then became the task of the newly

elected President George Washington to oversee the

construction of the new Federal City. Washington

appointed Pierre L'Enfant to draw up the architectural

plan, and named three trusted friends to serve as

commissioners to supervise the sale and development

of land in this new District of Columbia. He chose

Daniel Carroll, Thomas Johnson and David Stuart.

Greenleaf entered into a Dutch loan agreement signed

on December 15

, 1784 in Rotterdam in the amount

of one million guilders. But a guilder was 10.32 grams

(

159.261938 grains)

compared to a US silver dollar at

416 grams. This made the loan really valued at $382,000

Greenleaf purchased 3,000 lots and

paid with a promise that he would give the commissioners $12,000 a year for seven years. He

was able to back this commitment with this million-guilder line of credit from Holland.

Greenleaf purchased 3,000 lots that

included some of the prime real estate

of present-day Washington such as

Union Station Plaza, Columbus Circle,

the land where the Hart Senate Office

Building stands, and the Jefferson

Building of the Library of Congress.

Washington became concerned in

September 1793 that Greenleaf "has

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dipped deeply in the concerns of the Federal City...on

very advantageous terms for himself". Yet, there was

much hope that Greenleaf was bringing badly needed

foreign capital.

In December 1793 Greenleaf bought another 3,000 lots

but this time, he took in partners.

Greenleaf joined with

the famous financier Robert Morris (1734–1806) and

John Nicholson (1765-1852) who was also a financier,

businessman, comptroller general of Pennsylvania, anti-

Federalist pamphleteer, and publisher. These three men

became the founders of the celebrated "North American

Land Company," which became one of the first great

real estate collapses in US history.

Robert Morris became a merchant-banker who made a fortune on providing supplies for the

Revolution and emerged as one of the first American wealthy merchant-bankers. Morris became

to be known as the Financier of the War of Independence (1775-1783). He was also a signer of

the Declaration of Independence, but only after several weeks following its adoption. Morris

was really in control of the finances of the Continental Congress. He provided the fund for the

army and borrowed from the French as well from his own funds.

Morris established the Bank of North America in 1781. He was even a delegate to the

Constitutional Convention in 1787. He later served in the Senate of the new government 1789-

1795. He has disposed of his merchant-banking operations after the war and used his wealth to

now speculate on land with the vision that many would now come to America to join in their

new republic. Keep in mind that in Britain, land was on the system of "long-lease" meaning that

it could not be purchased, just as Britain had leased Hong Kong from China rather than owning

the property. With the prospect of land-ownership, the expectation of a land boom ran wild.

Morris had even served as chairman of the "Secret

Committee of Trade" and as a member of the Committee

of Correspondence. From 1781 to 1784, he served as the

powerful Superintendent of Finance, managing the

economy of the fledgling United States. As the central

civilian in the government, Morris was, economically the

most powerful man in America at that time. He was one of

Pennsylvania's original pair of US senators, serving from

1789 to 1795.

In 1778 John Nicholson became clerk to the Board of

Treasury of the Continental Congress. Congress accepted

pg_0008

his resignation on March 12, 1781, when he entered the service of Commonwealth as one of the

auditors for settling the accounts of the Pennsylvania Line. A year later, on April 13, 1782, the

legislature appointed him to the newly-created Office of Comptroller General, which had broad

powers to manage the financial affairs of the state. These powers were further increased as

other duties and offices were conferred upon him; in 1785 he was authorized to collect and

receive taxes, and in 1787 he was also made escheator general, to liquidate the estates of those

attainted (charged) of treason.

Under the reopened Federal Loan of 1792, Nicholson exchanged some $60,000 in "New Loan"

certificates for federal securities. Not only had the comptroller general picked up these

certificates for next to nothing, but they were not regarded as state debt to be redeemed. It was

this state of affairs that caused the State House of Representatives to resolve on April 5, 1793,

to impeach John Nicholson, to institute a suit against him for the recovery of funds which he had

allegedly diverted, and to appoint a committee to examine his accounts and make a report. The

committee, which was made up of Benjamin R. Morgan, Albert Gallatin, and Cadwallader Evans,

reported him a public defaulter to a large amount. The trial in the State Senate was protracted

and confusing. The House prosecutors were unable to muster a two-thirds vote against him on

any of seven counts. In fact, a majority voted in his favor on all but two charges. Nicholson was

acquitted but in 1794 resigned all his public offices.

It was this time period when he then became the partner of Robert Morris and James Greenleaf

in land speculation and development of the District of Columbia. With Greenleaf and Morris, he

entered the first real big real estate bubble and collapse in American history. This new venture

named in 1795 the North American Land Company, also purported to have as its capital six

million acres of land in Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina , South Carolina, Georgia, and

Kentucky. Nicholson was also involved in the formation of the Pennsylvania Population Land

Company, the Pennsylvania Land Company, the Territorial Land Company, the North Carolina

Land Company, the South Carolina Land Company, the "Kentucky" Land Company, and the

Georgia Land Company.

The USA was the new emerging market brimming with land deals. Yet it was the new District of

Columbia where they now owned six thousand lots in the city of dreams – Washington. The area

became part of the District of Columbia in 1791. Congress passed the Residence Act of 1790 to

establish a federally-owned district in which would be built the new national capital. It had been

George Washington who actually picked the current site for Washington, DC in 1791, which was

ratified by Congress. In 1795, real estate speculator James Greenleaf purchased most of what is

now the Anacostia Historic District in DC from federal government. It was this purchase that

Washington believed was too low and was being turned into a land speculation by Greenleaf.

Sea Captain William Mayne Duncanson landed in the United States in August 1794 in New York

at the Battery a very rich man. He was English and served in India with friends who all saw the

new United States as an emerging market. Duncanson landed with his friend Thomas Law and

pg_0009

took up residence at 48 Broad Street and 47

Broadway respectively. They became friends with

James Greenleaf living at 112 Liberty and James Ray

at 134 Greenwich. Ray was also an adventurer in

India. It was James Greenleaf, a native of Boston,

who was perhaps the real driving force behind the

land speculation in Washington. It was Greenleaf

whose international merchant contacts opened the

door of opportunity. He was said to have been a

genius – keen trader of currency and stocks. Yet he

was in the position to see the European desire to

invest in the new land free of Britain.

James Ray, his partner in the commission business

whose son

James Brown Ray (1794-1848) became

Governor of Indiana and promoted the land boom in

that state

, and Thomas Law were all Englishmen who

had come to the United States in 1794 and invested heavily in Greenleaf 's grand design to

"promote" the District of Columbia. Thomas Law was the only investor who was shrewd enough

to obtain mortgages from the North

American Land Company for the

purchases which he made.

Captain Duncanson took up his

residence in Washington living in fine

style erecting a house in 1796 that

became known as the Maples. It was

completed just in time for the second

phase of a real estate bubble that

gripped the US economy.

Perhaps they should have seen the

bubble coming. After all, in 1720, the

Mississippi Bubble in Paris broke in late February and about 4.3 months later in June 1720 the

South Sea Bubble reached its climax in London. Here we have speculation in land that created a

real estate bubble everywhere outside of Washington, DC, peaking in 1792. This was clearly a

leading indicator for the Panic of 1796-1797 that blew up the Washington Real Estate Bubble.

Even today, if you pay close attention to real estate, you will notice that the bull market tends to

begin in the main core cities. The financial district in NYC, for example, will begin to rise. That

will gradually spread to other districts within the city and then to the suburbs. By the time the

first area peaks, there will be a lag to the suburbs. This was the case in real estate in the 1790s.

pg_0010

Everywhere else peaked in

1792 warning what was to

come in Washington. This is a

very

IMPORTANT

observation to watch today

since the Real Estate Bubble

of 2007.

The Panic of 1792 was the

first financial bubble to take

place in the United States

market. It was a combination

of land speculation and stock

speculation that resulted in

William Duer (1743-1799), a

lawyer from New York City

who helped to draft the New

York State Constitution and served as a member of the Continental Congress in 1778 and 1779.

Duer was sentenced to debtor's prison where he died after being held indefinitely. Alexander

Macomb (1782-1841) was an American merchant who was one of the richest men in New York

City whose home was rented to George Washington for his Presidency. He would write to a

friend, William Constable (1752-1803) an international merchant trading between England and

American ports. In his letter of April 1792, he lamented that he lost everything in "less than

three months" and would be sent to debtor's prison and

never regain his fortune.

These were just two prominent men that were wiped out by

the Panic of 1792. There were many others. However, this

Panic of 1792 was important

from many respects. It was

involving real estate, stock

speculation, and of course

international capital flows.

The United States was the

emerging market. The French

Revolution also helped to

send cash to America after

1789. This helped to create

the boom in America providing excess cash that fueled the

feeling of good times.

pg_0011

It was the first Panic of 1792 that caused Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790) to write: "Nothing is

certain but death and taxes." That was the first quote regarding the first financial panic in the

United States. The collapse in the stock price was by no means the only thing affected. It was a

time of great excitement. As always, those at the center of a financial crisis were accused of

intending to create the fraud as if they had some vision of the future. More often than not, the

accused sees an opportunity and exaggerates within his mind the potential wealth that will flow

his way resulting in the classic counting of chickens before they hatch. There is never some

clairvoyance with visions of a financial crisis, but a presumption there will be endless wealth.

The Panic of 1792 was broadly felt and was in many respects not so different from the

DOT.COM Bubble of 2000 where people can see the future potential, but lack an understanding

of how long it would be to reach that goal. This was a combination of wild speculation both in

stocks and in land. It

was also perhaps the

Panic of 1792 that

created the first

speculative option IPO

market in American

history.

Illustrating

this

excitement of the times

as the USA appeared as

the emerging market to

the Europeans with

endless opportunities

to OWN land, produced

dreams of wild

potential for the

acquisition of wealth.

Adding to this potential bullishness, we also have the birth of a new central bank in the United

States on the general scope as the Bank of England. This time, it would be an IPO offering for

Bank of the United States where shares prices were sold at $400 each with 25,000 shares

issued. Realizing that this was a fortune and typically several years’ worth of income for the

average man, shares were sold on a subscription basis and thus the "script" or option (in

modern terms) to buy a share was sold for $25 payable in gold. The option holder was then

required to pay $100 ($25 in gold; $75 in US Debt) by January 1st, 1792 and July 1st, 1792, with

the next payment on January 1st, 1793 with the final $75 in debt swaps paid by July 1, 1793,

according to David Jack Cowen (The Origins and Economic Impact of the First Bank of the United

States, 1791-1797 (2000)).

pg_0012

It was this script that began to trade - options if you will, from July 4th, 1791. Within just six

weeks of trading was active, the price about doubled by the end of July. By August 1791, shares

exploded reaching $264 bid - $280 ask in New York on August 11th, 1791. The main market was

Philadelphia where shares soared in price to $300. This meant that the actual share price would

have been about $700. A panic broke out and the price tumbled in Boston collapsing from $230

on August 12th dropping to $112 by the 14th, the script rallied reaching $154-159 on the New

York market by August 16th, 1791. In Philadelphia, the price rose to $125-137 on the same day.

There was an overwhelming feeling of good times. The victory over England created visions of

unlimited freedom. Property houses in Philadelphia rose sharply giving rise to real estate in

Boston and New York as well. The speculation on this script (options) on Bank of the United

States shares during this period was also similar to the emerging market boom that produced a

rush to invest in Russia upon the fall of communism. That emerging market rush led to the

collapse of the Russian shares, currency, bonds, and manifested into the Long-Term Capital

Management Crisis of September 1998. This was the same spirit driving capital into America

and causing a surge in stock prices as well as local land prices.

There were private banks in America. The Bank of New York was founded in 1784 after the

Revolution and it was chartered in 1791. The Bank of North America had been the creation of

Robert Morris. There had been a history pre-~evolution of various schemes to create credit and

money. As far back as King William's War in 1690, Massachusetts Bay paid for its military

expedition into Canada by creating paper currency script known as Bills of Credit and to

encourage their acceptance and circulation, they were acceptable to pay taxes at a 5% discount.

Much of the early military expenses with Indian wars were met by issuing these paper currency

scripts known as "Bills of Credit" at this time.

Prices were volatile in America due to the lack of economic development. In 1642, the Spanish

silver dollars (8 reales) were trading at 4 schillings. By 1645, Spanish dollars rose to 6 schillings

and then crashed to 5 schillings that year. Eventually, British merchants complained of the

fluctuations and in 1707 and Act of Parliament set the maximum value of Spanish dollars at 6

schillings. Much of the wild

fluctuations were caused by war

expenses with the lack of precious

metals to cover the costs that led

to the issue of paper Bills of

Credit. The wars had continued

for there was the King George

War (1741-1748) followed by the

French and Indian War (1754-

1763).

pg_0013

By 1733, paper money Bills of Credit

began to be issued also for public civil

expenditures to construct things such as

jails, lighthouses, courthouses, forts, and

harbors. In 1769, Philadelphia issued

paper money simply to cover welfare

payments to the poor (illustrated

here).The note expressly states:

“Contributors to the Relief and

Employment of the Poor in the City of

Philadelphia…"

This form of circulating credit gave birth

to Colonial Loan Offices that became an

official type of pawn shop where

individuals could pledge their land or

silver as collateral. The first Loan Office was formed in 1712 in South Carolina and by 1737, every

colony followed except Georgia. In many cases, the loan was repayable in script yet the interest

was due exclusively in coin. In 1741, the English Parliament required the redemption of all such

private script for now there were those opening loan banks printing their own money. In 1749,

England sent sufficient coin to redeem state Bills of Credit at the ratio of 7.5 to 1. This Act

became effective September 29th, 1751. This had the effect of creating deflation driving the

price of gold & silver higher.

So the American colonists were accustomed to the wild fluctuations in the value of silver and

gold due to war and quantities being discovered that would create temporary periods of excess

money. Against this backdrop we must see the Panic of 1792 was hardly taking place in a

vacuum. There had even been Shays' Rebellion in 1785 in Massachusetts during August that

year which was a uprising by land owners against further foreclosures due to the economic

decline that lasted between August 1786 and February 1787. It was this rebellion that caused

Jefferson to write his famous Tree of Liberty comment: "The tree of liberty must be refreshed

from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure." This

rebellion forced changes in bankruptcy laws for it was the climax of a series of events emerging

from the 1780s that convinced furthered the idea of federalism. A strong federal government

was argued to be benevolent imposing uniform economic policies and “protect" property

owners from local majorities. These ideas sprung from a paradox that private liberty, property

rights, could be threatened by public liberty - unrestrained power in the hands of the people.

James Madison addressed this concept by stating that "Liberty may be endangered by the

abuses of liberty as well as the abuses of power."

pg_0014

The Panic of 1792 was also an

international capital flow event

further demonstrating that domestic

policy objectives are NEVER truly in

full isolation. On July 14th, 1789, the

French Revolution was born. The

people stormed the Bastille which

became an abusive symbol of political

imprisonment. This world become

Bastille Day. At first, the government

of France fell to a Directory that

proved to be excessively corrupt

aimed first at protecting and

increasing the profits of those who

were then in political and economic power. It also stood against any redistribution of property.

This led to a loose period of morality and good times. It was during this period following 1789

that marked the French Revolution and the formalized birth of the United States, that there was

an initial outflow of capital-from France as a

matter of security. Indeed; the French

Revolution fell into the hands of Robespierre

(1758-1794) who began a Reign of Terror

(September 5, 1793-July 27, 1794) that would

come to an end with his own death. The Smart

money fled to America. This set the stage for the

next Bubble – 1796-1797.

The Panic of 1796–1797 was a series of

downturns in Atlantic credit markets that led to

broader commercial downturns in both Britain

and the United States. In the U.S., problems first

emerged when the Bubble of land speculation

burst in 1796. The crisis deepened into a

broader depression when the Bank of England

suspended specie payments on February 25

1797 under the Bank Restriction Act 1797. The Bank's directors feared insolvency when English

account holders, who were nervous about a possible French invasion, began withdrawing their

deposits. In combination with the unfolding collapse of the U.S. real estate market, the Bank of

England's action had developing disinflationary repercussions in the financial and commercial

markets of the coastal United States and the Caribbean through the turn of the century.

pg_0015

In September 1795, as the last of the Real Estate Bubbles began

to collapse in Washington, D.C. The Dutch bankers backing

Greenleaf

began to trim their commitment for capital from

about $382,000 to a mere $60,000 mortgage on 250 lots. The

Reign of Terror in France was over and the incentive for capital

to flee to America was subsiding to some extent. As

international capital began to withdraw, the reversal in capital

flows brought about a reversal in fortune to the land

speculators in America.

Greenleaf was bankrupted during the Panic of 1796–1797. The US Emerging Market Boom was

over in this new land known as the United States. William Cranch (1769-1855) was a famous

judge who also published the written decisions of the Supreme Court. Cranch was James

Greenleaf’s lawyer and brother-in-law. When James Greenleaf was forced into bankruptcy,

Cranch was appointed his trustee.

Greenleaf's many creditors threw him into debtor's prison.

The debacle convinced Washington and the commissioners that Congress, and not speculators,

had to finance the city's construction. Greenleaf died in 1842, but the litigation over his holdings

long outlived him. The last action concerning his tangled deals was not concluded until 1857.

Nonetheless,

Greenleaf

was not alone. By 1800, the crisis had resulted in the collapse of many

prominent merchant firms in Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Baltimore, and the

imprisonment of many famous American debtors and some died in prison such as William Duer.

Today, they are imprisoned under claims they knew the bubble would bust and it did so because

that was their intended scheme. So while Debtor’s Prison is a barbaric relic of the past, the

labels are merely changed to achieve the same objective – retribution.

The man who financed the American Revolution, the famed financier who may have been the

richest man in America at the time, Robert Morris, also went to Debtor’s Prison as did his

partner Nicholson. James Wilson (1742-1798), another signor of the Declaration of

Independence and appointed as Supreme Court Justice in 1789 by President Washington, was

forced to spend the rest of his life literally fleeing from creditors, To avoid arrest for debt, the

distraught Wilson moved from Philadelphia to Burlington, New Jersey. The next year, apparently

while on federal circuit court

business, he arrived at Edenton,

NC, in a state of acute mental

stress and was taken into the

home of Supreme Court Justice

James Iredell. He died there

within a few months

overwhelmed by the stress.

pg_0016

George Meade, the grandfather of the American Civil War general George Gordon Meade was

ruined by investments in Western land deals and died in bankruptcy due to the Panic of 1796-

1797. The scandals associated with these and many other incidents resulted in the U.S. Congress

passing the Bankruptcy Act of 1800. The Bankruptcy Act of 1800 would later be repealed after

its three-year duration expired in 1803. But its design was to eliminate throwing people in prison

to die as debtors because of market forces they knew nothing about.

About 2,000 New Yorkers annually by 1816

were thrown into Debtor’s Prison. Many

simply died there. Henry Lee III, better

known as Light-Horse Harry Lee, a

Revolutionary War general, former

governor of Virginia, and father of Robert

E. Lee, was imprisoned for debt between

1808 and 1809. Sometimes, imprisonment

would result from less than sixty cents'

worth of debt. There was no set minimum

amount that justified losing your life.

The celebrated historian Charles Hibbert,

who wrote the Roots of Evil, tells how

plagues began in the jails (gails) for lack of cleanliness. When prisoners were taken to court, the

judges would die and even the Lord Mayor of England dies of a “Gail Fever" as they were known.

Today, the need to prosecute still outweighs public safety and the US will even kidnap people

overseas and bring them in when they could not travel directly because of quarantines and

disease. Many states are starting once again to imprison people for their inability to pay. One

must ask if they cannot pay, what purpose does imprisonment serve other than retribution.

However, it was not until the Panic of 1825 that finally in 1833 the United States abolished

Federal imprisonment for unpaid debts, and most states outlawed the practice around the same

time. Some states still allow that barbaric practice especially when such financial panics will take

down often the mighty. In Ancient Greece, bankruptcy did not exist. If a man owed and he could

not pay, he and his wife, children or servants were forced into "debt slavery", until the creditor

recouped losses via their physical labor. At least that was better than the Anglo-Saxon practice

of debtor’s prison. Many city-states in ancient Greece limited debt slavery to a period of five

years and debt slaves had protection of life and limb, which regular slaves did not enjoy and in

Anglo-Saxon courts, life means very little.

In the Torah, or Old Testament, every seventh year is decreed by Mosaic Law as a Sabbatical

year wherein the release of all debts that are owed by members of the community is mandated,

but not of "foreigners" meaning non-Jews. The seventh Sabbatical year, or forty-ninth year, is

then followed by another Sabbatical year known as the Year of Jubilee wherein the release of all

pg_0017

debts is mandated, for fellow community members and foreigners alike, and the release of all

debt-slaves is also mandated. There was nothing in the Bible allowing death by imprisonment

for being unable to pay a loan.

In Islamic teaching, according to the Qur'an, an insolvent person was deemed to be allowed

time to be able to pay out his debt. This is recorded in the Qur'an's second chapter (Sura Al-

Baqara), Verse 280, which notes: "And if someone is in hardship, then let there be

postponement until a time of ease. But if you give from your right as charity, then it is better

for you, if you only knew."

Bankruptcy is also documented in East Asia. According to al-Maqrizi, the Yassa of Genghis Khan

contained a provision that mandated the death penalty for anyone who became bankrupt three

times. There is nowhere in the world other than British/American practice where death was

inflicted for market conditions that forced people into bankruptcy.

The Statute of Bankrupts of 1542 was the first statute under English law dealing with

bankruptcy or insolvency. It expressly stated: “Lord Chancellor ... shall have power and

authority by virtue of this Act to take ... imprisonment of their bodies or otherwise, as also

with their [real and personal property however held] and to make sale of said [real and

personal property however held] for true satisfaction and payment of the said creditors, that

is to say; to every of the said creditors a portion, rate and rate like, according to the quantity

of their debt." This is why Supreme Court Justice James Wilson died of stress fleeing his

creditors knowing they had the right to basically kill him slowly as a debtor.

Of course, there have been national defaults as well. The failure of a nation to meet bond

repayments has been seen on many occasions. Philip II of Spain had to declare four state

bankruptcies in 1557, 1560, 1575 and 1596. Naturally, governments do not die in prison nor do

their politicians go to jail for their fiscal mismanagement of public funds.

Misfortune even overtook Captain William Mayne Duncanson, and his property became

encumbered by creditors. Before his death in 1812 he had to move to a more humble abode,

the mansion with other property becoming subject to the courts. When Greenleaf failed, all the

other investors were in the hopeless position of "general unsecured creditors.' Lawsuits over

Greenleaf’s operations went on for fifteen years, including an appeal to the United States

Supreme Court.

Early in the winter of 1799-1800, Nicholson was imprisoned for debt. He died on December 5

1800, leaving a wife, eight children, and more than four million dollars in debts. The attempt to

settle his estate resulted in the creation of a series of special state commissions, the

sequestering of his private and business papers, and the creation in 1843 of a special Nicholson

Court of Pleas.

pg_0018

The Panic of 1796-1797 bankrupted many. Morris too was sent to Debtor's Prison where he

remained for 3 years until he was released in 1801. No role one plays for government will ever

satisfy a court. Retribution is always inflicted. Thus, the man who funded the birth of a nation,

faired with little grace under the law. Nevertheless, it marked the END of a 26 Year Real Estate

Boom much as did 1725 mark the end of the first emerging market real estate boom into 1720

that was the collapse of the Mississippi Bubble in Paris and the South Sea Bubble in London.

The Real Estate Wave pictured above actually peaked in 1773. The American Revolution

naturally ended a wave of investing into the New World. There were various attempts to revive

the Real Estate market as was the case with the Panic of 1792. However, this euphoria was

rather short lived predicated upon a new American government and a fresh start clean of

Britain. Nonetheless, that wave of foreign capital inflows was tenuous at best for on the horizon

came the French Revolution that was followed by a new wave of French Imperialism.

The Panic of 1796-1797 bankrupted some of the most famous men among the first generation

of Americans. As always, the market to the widest degree of economic damage is always real

estate. It tends to be the longest economic decline of the group for it often requires lending and

mortgages. Economic declines involving real estate tend to produce significant contractions for

two reasons. Real Estate tends to be the number one sector that consumes capital, is not

movable, and forms the majority of wealth among the population. Consequently, even the

average person will tend to spend more immediate cash provided he “believes" his net worth is

greater based upon unrealized profits in real estate. Consequently, a decline in real estate

produces the longest economic contraction for the decline in the speculative value of property

tends to suppress ALL real estate within that market putting a greater amount of supply on the

market at the same time. This makes the recovery much longer also due to the great diversity in

trends from one region to another not to mention commercial v housing.

pg_0019

The second most serious sector to create an economic correction is debt. A debt crisis outside of

real estate tends to wipe out capital formation. This is where “cash" tends to park itself, most

often in government bonds. Yet all governments have eventually defaulted on their debts.

Nevertheless, investors confuse power with honesty. They buy the government debt because of

power, yet the paradox is that government debt is the worst of all for it is not secured. You

cannot run down to the government art museum and start to grab art work to recover your

money as can be done in private lending. Real Estate was the first real American Bubble.

Sovereign Debt is usually the second. Post 2007, we still face both.

Greenleaf

Sources:

1) Title: City of Boston containing Boston births A.D. 1700 to A.D. 1800 (CD-ROM: 1997 Search & ReSearch Publishing

Corp.), Volume: Document 43, Volume 24

Abbrev: City of Boston containing Boston births

Author: Compiler: Record Commissioners

Publication: Record Commissioners, Boston, Massachusetts, 1894

Page: 310

2) Title: Genealogy of the Greenleaf Family

Abbrev: Genealogy of the Greenleaf Family

Author: Greenleaf, James Edward

Publication: Frank Wood, Printer, Boston, Massachusetts, 1896

Page: 217

3) Title: Genealogy of the Greenleaf Family

Abbrev: Genealogy of the Greenleaf Family

Author: Greenleaf, James Edward

Publication: Frank Wood, Printer, Boston, Massachusetts, 1896

Page: 101

pg_0020

We will be holding three World Economic Conferences this year. These will be

substantially different from the Philadelphia Conference. That was a combination of an

Analytical Training Seminar and a World Economic Conference. Normally, each type

of session is a two day event. Consequently, these two events had to be crammed into two

days. Unfortunately, we could not accommodate everyone. We had to turn down 365

people. Traditionally, these events are limited to 100 attendees. Because of the

overwhelming response, the room was full to capacity at 300+. That prohibited Mr.

Armstrong from mingling with the crowd at the cocktail party and he was unable to see

each and every person as he enjoys doing. These three upcoming conferences will be

smaller, just forecasting, and will be two day events instead of the single day WEC which

was provided in Philadelphia. Seating will be $1500 per seat. Those who are interested in

attending please send your email to reserve a seat to:

pg_0021

Real Estate – A global view

By: Petra Gajdosikova

With negative real interest rates as far as the eye can see savers are being heavily

penalized, and this is likely to continue for the foreseeable future until the Sovereign

Debt Crisis kicks in. It therefore makes sense to allocate funds to income producing

investments, be it higher dividend paying equities or high yielding real estate.

Governments are becoming increasingly aggressive when it comes to their citizens’

assets, and especially assets located overseas. Americans in particular (and increasingly

also Europeans) have been subjected to more and more restrictions, regulations and

reporting requirements. Overseas real estate is (aside of private vault safety deposit

boxes) the last type of offshore asset that doesn’t have to be reported - yet. That may

not last for long, so buying real estate in certain well chosen markets makes sense at

present. It’s likely that further restrictions, and possibly also FX controls and capital

controls, will be implemented in the next few years.

Diversification on a global scale has always been a good idea but is becoming rather

essential in these turbulent times. You can’t protect yourself if all or most of your assets

are dependent on a single economy, government or currency. Political risks are now

becoming greater than market risks, so the benefits of spreading one’s assets across

various jurisdictions should not be overlooked.

There are always profit-making opportunities somewhere in the world, as long as one is

willing to look beyond the usual horizon. (Which doesn’t mean that far-away markets

are always, regardless of circumstances, the best bet. More on that later.)

So, what to look for.

In terms of real estate, investors should look for price anomalies; markets with low

relative prices and/or low per-square-meter prices, properties priced at less than the

replacement cost (i.e. less than what it would cost to build), etc. There aren’t many

pg_0022

places today offering true bargain basement prices, though some good values can still

be found, especially in countries that have suffered from political turmoil, civil unrest,

financial crises, bad economic policies, and so on.

Most importantly, look for markets offering high rental yields (or low price/rent ratios).

High yield means the cost of buying is low compared to the cost of renting. Of course

such a situation could, under certain circumstances, persist for a long time. Eventually,

however, low price/rent ratios tend to put upward pressure on property prices.

Generally gross yields of 4% or less warn of overvaluation, while yields of 10%+ signal

opportunity.

Potential capital appreciation may be considered a plus; a real estate investment should

be evaluated based on the income it generates.

NOTES:

1. Prices quoted in this article refer to residential prices of good quality/Western style properties in higher-

end locations (the sort that is typically of interest to foreign buyers and tenants and local higher-middle

class). Average prices across the respective cities and countries can be considerably lower than quoted

herein, especially in emerging markets with high poverty rates. A small number of properties at the very

top-end of the market is also excluded due to lesser appeal to income oriented investors.

2. $ refers to the US dollar.

3. Yields throughout this text refer to gross rental yields (before expenses and taxes) unless otherwise

stated.

4. Transaction costs in each of the markets are beyond the scope of this short text, but need to be taken

into account when considering an investment; in some countries roundtrip transaction costs (total costs of

buying and selling a property) can be as high as 20% or more.

Subscription

Services

We hope to have the subscription services up and

running by June. These will be the computer generated

reports written by the computer to further

eliminate the

personal prejudice and bias inherent in forecasting &

trading.

pg_0023

Markets W

orthy of

Consideration

Europe and Middle East

Despite the ongoing economic turmoil in Europe and the hit most of the continent’s real

estate markets have taken in the last few years, European property is, for the most part,

still too expensive and yields are relatively low.

Some opportunities are starting to appear in parts of Central-Eastern Europe. Hungary,

after a few years of price declines and massive forint devaluation, offers the lowest

prices and some of the highest yields in the region, but also the worst economic and

fiscal situation. Centrally located late 19

/early 20

century Budapest apartments can

be bought from as little as 1,000 euro/m2; yields are in the range of 6-7%. Should the

forint decline further a purchase in Budapest is likely to be quite rewarding longer term.

Ireland

has seen the worst real estate crash in Europe; Dublin housing is down some

65% since 2006 (and 20% in 2011 alone). Good values are starting to appear in central

Dublin (for residential as well as commercial property), so this is a market to watch -

although there’s not much reason to rush in quite yet. Yields in central Dublin have

increased to 5-6% and vacancy rates have dropped considerably.

Germany

continues to offer some of the best value on the continent. One of the few

markets to have escaped the property boom and subsequent bust, German real estate -

and particularly the former East German cities (including the capital Berlin) - can still be

purchased very inexpensively compared to other European countries. Berlin prices grew

by 7% in 2010 and continued to climb last year, yet well located classic residential

apartment blocks (which are of most interest to investors) still sell for as little as 1,500-

2,000 euro/m2 and can yield 6-9% annually. Individual apartments tend to have higher

prices than entire apartment buildings and yield 4-6%. Drawbacks are very pro-tenant

legislation (which most tenants are well aware of and will use to their utmost

advantage) and, typical for Western Europe, high taxes.

Turkey

and in particular Istanbul appear to offer good longer term potential. The

country is expected to be one of the fastest growing OECD members for the next five

years. Real estate is not expensive; good quality properties in Istanbul start at around

$2,000/m2. Yields are fair, at 5-7%.

pg_0024

Dubai’s

real estate declined more than most other markets, with property prices

down as much as 60% since 2008. The emirate could start offering reasonable values in

the near future, although the speculative building boom that burst so spectacularly has

left a formidable oversupply of new residential and commercial developments, a good

portion of which remain vacant. So this may be one to keep an eye on for later on.

Latin America

Most Latin American currencies have appreciated significantly in the last few years,

which, coupled with strong property price increases, means that true bargains have

largely disappeared. In fact, a number of markets appear to be highly overvalued, large

Brazilian cities in particular.

Among other disadvantages are the high taxes in much of the region, further lowering

returns. Political uncertainty and risks also need to be taken into account.

A caveat: Don’t count on high standards of construction and finishing, even at the higher

end of the market. In most developing countries things are not made, built and finished

to the same standards as they are in the US or Europe. Latin American standards can be

particularly low, so it is a good idea to actually inspect what one is buying. Another

frequent problem is the poor upkeep and maintenance of even higher end

developments in most emerging markets throughout Latin America and Asia.

Colombia

for decades a synonym for narco-terrorism, kidnappings and the FARC, was

long avoided by investors. Yet the country made astonishing progress under President

Uribe (whose second term ended in 2010) - violence has declined sharply and drug

traffickers and leftist guerillas were driven out of urban centers.

Increased security and pro-market policies have made Colombia a fledgling economic

success story. Foreign investors and corporations have been returning en masse and the

country’s investment grade rating was restored in 2011. Foreign direct investment (FDI)

was up 88.7% in the first 9 months of 2011 compared to the same period in 2010 (Banco

de la Republica). Mining and oil sectors account for approx 60% of FDI.

Colombia is the oldest and most stable democracy in Latin America as well as the only

Latin American country that has never defaulted on its sovereign debt (and never had a

hyperinflation).

Medellin, once the murder capital of the world and home of the Medellin cartel led by

late drug king Pablo Escobar, has undergone an extraordinary makeover; it’s now a

major commercial hub housing headquarters of countless national and multinational

companies, and boasts one of the most modern infrastructures in Latin America.

pg_0025

Residential property prices have, after a sharp decline between 1996-2002, been rising

for the last 7-8 years, thanks to economic growth, expanding middle class, growing

home ownership rate and lower mortgage rates. The average real annual increase since

2003 came to 5.7% (according to DANE - Departamento Administrativo Nacional de

Estadística, and BBVA Research).

However, Colombia’s violent past continues to scare off many investors. Real estate in

cities like Medellin still offers great value – in fact probably the best value of any

comparable Latin American metropolis. Well located modern apartments in prime

neighborhoods can be had from around $1,000/m2, yielding between 7-11% (lower

yields on long term leases, higher on shorter term executive and foreigner rentals).

Vacancy rates across the main cities are near the lowest levels of the last decade

(around 4% in Bogota, according to La Galeria Inmobiliaria.)

70-80% of new units in major cities are sold pre-construction, with less than 5% of

completed units for sale (La Galeria Inmobiliaria, BBVA). Unlike in many other markets,

pre-construction condos carry a substantial premium in Colombia, so investors will find

better values in buildings that are 5-15 years old.

Colombia also offers some interesting coastal real estate. Although prices have risen

quite sharply in recent years due to local demand for second homes, Santa Marta, for

instance, continues to offer good values despite its strong tourism demand. (Cartagena,

on the other hand, is now one of the most expensive coastal cities in South America.)

Colombia is a major producer and exporter of coffee, oil, coal, nickel, emeralds, textiles

and flowers; and hence, as many emerging markets, highly sensitive to fluctuations of

commodity prices. Continuous improvement of the security situation is also necessary;

should it come to deterioration at some point, the hard won confidence would likely

quickly evaporate.

Taxes are quite high, as in much of South America.

Ecuador

offers some of the world’s lowest priced real estate. Due to economic and

political instability property in Ecuador has not seen as much appreciation as other

markets. Modern apartments and houses in the larger cities can be had from about

$400/m2. Old colonial buildings in the historic parts of Quito and Cuenca offer very good

values and renovation costs are considerably lower than in other parts of Latin America.

Coastal towns are also inexpensive; beachfront condos and houses in one of the popular

seaside locations are priced from approx $800/m2 (prices are lower a few blocks away

from the beach).

Reliable rental value statistics are hard to come by. Real estate in the short term rental

market appears to return 5-11% p.a. depending on location, size and target market.

pg_0026

Ecuador has been largely undiscovered by foreign visitors; should that come to change

rental rates are likely to climb higher (along with sales prices).

Some of the more interesting locations for investors are the coastal towns of Salinas,

Manta, Playas and Montanita; the inland cities Quito and Guayaquil may be more suited

for long term rental to the domestic market (typically lower yields); Cuenca has been

increasingly popular with North American expats and retirees.

Farmland is also inexpensive in Ecuador, though large scale foreigner owned land could

become a welcome target for the increasingly aggressive government.

As with several other countries on the continent, Ecuador’s economy is dependent on

the world’s commodity markets (in particular oil, minerals and agriculture). FX risk

doesn’t apply as Ecuador uses the US dollar.

Given Ecuador’s not inconsiderable political risks (it is part of the leftist alliance with

Venezuela and Bolivia), the state’s grip over private industry and its tumultuous

relationship with large foreign investors, it may be more suitable for small scale

speculative investments.

Uruguay

is not as cheap as Ecuador (or even Colombia), Uruguay nevertheless offers

good values, as well as safety and political stability hard to find elsewhere in Latin

America. Often regarded as the “Switzerland of South America", it is the jurisdiction of

choice for many Argentines and Brazilians looking for a banking safe haven, rule of law

and strong property rights protection.

Uruguay, with its 3.3 million inhabitants (vast majority of European origin), is an outlier

in Latin America - quaint, clean, and cultured, with good infrastructure, highly educated

population, low corruption and the lowest crime rates on the continent.

The real estate market has recovered following the early 2000’s crash and bank

deleveraging and prices have been on the rise since 2003-04. Property prices - in US

dollar terms - have appreciated significantly in the last couple of years on the back of

the strong economic growth (GDP rose by 8.5% GDP in 2010 and 2.9% in 2009) and

strength of the Uruguayan peso. Growth in real wages has kept up; the ratio of real

estate values over incomes is at the lowest level of a decade.

Rental values have also risen; yields range between 6.5-9% depending on size, location,

standards and target market (long vs. short term rental).

Well located real estate in the capital Montevideo (with its old world feel and European-

influenced culture) can still be purchased at prices as low as $1,300/m2. High-end newly

built apartments and properties with sea views cost around $2,000-2,500/m2 - about

half of high-end apartments in best areas of Buenos Aires and about one third of similar

pg_0027

properties in Rio and Sao Paulo. Unrenovated colonial properties can be had from

$1,000/m2. Apartments in the grand historic buildings in the center and Old Town offer

some of the best values at the moment.

Uruguay’s extensive coastline offers everything from inexpensive untouched beachfront

land and low cost houses in the less developed areas (such as Rocha) all the way to the

glitzy Punta del Este (PDE) - South America’s premier seaside resort that has been

attracting South American and European holiday makers for nearly a century. Prices in

PDE range from around $100,000 for older condos a few blocks from the water to multi-

million dollar houses snapped up by the world’s rich and famous.

Uruguay has more cattle per capita than any other country in the world as well as one of

the highest ratios of agricultural land per capita. However, farmland prices have

appreciated strongly over the last decade and are now almost at par with Brazil or

Argentina (prime crop land sells at between $4,000-10,000/hectare depending on

quality, size and logistics).

Uruguay is also one of only a few South American countries with a favorable tax regime,

including low tax rates on rental income and capital gains (at 12%).

Paraguay

could be of some interest to investors looking for real estate bargains - in

particular in the agricultural sector, featuring the lowest farmland prices on the

continent.

However, property rights are, in practice, not as well protected as one might wish. (Land

invasions by peasant groups a few years ago resulted in the government validating their

ownership, in effect expropriating the actual owner’s property.)

Cuba

will see a huge real estate boom once the Castro brothers are gone and the

country opens up and restructures, though it’s difficult for private investors to capitalize

on that at present.

Asia

Real estate returns in emerging Asia tend to, over the long run, be driven chiefly by

economic growth and (in parts) favorable demographics. Due to easy credit, low interest

rates, capital inflows and rampant speculation many markets currently appear to be

overvalued and vulnerable to corrections in the short to medium term.

Several Asian countries make it extremely difficult to impossible for nonresidents to buy

real estate. However, there are a number of countries with relatively low property

pg_0028

prices and attractive rental returns where foreigners are allowed to own property (or

certain types of property).

Thailand

has long been one of the world’s most popular tourist destinations, yet real

estate in most of the resort destinations (as well as in Bangkok and other cities)

continues to be quite inexpensive. In fact property prices (adjusted for inflation) are still

some 30% below their 1992 peak. The market has also taken a hit from the political

turmoil in the last few years, scaring away a good portion of tourists and investors. After

declining for most of the past five years house prices started rising again in 2011.

Despite significant baht appreciation over the last decade the Thai market continues to

presents some interesting opportunities. The country will likely be one of the main

beneficiaries of tourism and investment diversification from the increasingly prosperous

Chinese. Growing demand from Chinese buyers, adding to the long-standing interest

from European visitors and retirees, should boost prices in the medium to longer term.

(Aside of a popular tourist destination Thailand is also a large regional manufacturing

centre and business hub.)

Condominiums and villas on the islands of Phuket and Koh Samui tend to be the safest

choice for those looking to do short-term rentals. Prices in these holiday hotspots range

between $1,400-3,000+/m2 (depending on location, beach access, road access,

amenities), with small condos a few blocks from the beach starting at as little as $40,000

and, at the other end of the market, luxury villas changing hands for several millions.

Yields on condos in modern blocks with good facilities and easy access to beach can

come to 8-13% (though this being largely a short-term holiday rental destination returns

are dependent on the vagaries of the tourism market as well as on one’s marketing

efforts).

Hua Hin is favored by Bangkok buyers looking for a second home (due to its easy access

from the capital). Prices vary greatly, from very inexpensive properties away from the

coast to high-end villas by the sea. (Condos and small villas below $100,000 have been

most popular with Thai buyers). Hua Hin has seen a lot of housing construction in recent

years and many developments are yet to be completed, which will further increase an

already high supply over the next few years.

Pattaya has traditionally been Thailand’s cheapest beach destination, tending to attract

a more down market type of visitor (though there are pockets of more exclusivity).

Condos in (mostly high-rise) modern developments with all facilities start at around

$1,300/m2.

pg_0029

The Bangkok market offers a large variety of residential units in all price ranges, with

some signs of oversupply. Good quality apartments can be purchased at around $2,000-

3,000/m2 and yield 5-7.50 %.

There are restrictions on foreign ownership of Thai real estate. Foreigners can own

condominiums provided a maximum of 49% of the building (or development) is in

foreign ownership. Alternatively they can acquire leasehold rights on real estate of up to

30 years, with the possibility of renewing the lease for an additional 30 years.

Malaysia

in both the economy and real estate markets has been very stable over the

years. Property prices rarely rise or fall by more than low single digit percentages,

meaning inflation adjusted prices haven’t moved much over the last decade.

Despite the strength of the ringgit, real estate prices in Malaysia remain quite low even

in USD terms. Good quality properties in Kuala Lumpur can be had at $1,400-2,500/m2;

rental yields are quite high at 7-9%. Penang and Langkawi are popular beach

destinations with a variety of condominiums and villas for sale and rental at affordable

prices.

Foreigners can directly acquire properties priced at no less than 500,000 ringgit each

(approx $160,000).

Cambodia

is a relatively new market for foreign investors has seen increasing

interest from Asian as well as European buyers in recent years. Foreigners have been

allowed to own apartments (except those on the ground floor of a building) – but not

land - since 2010. As in Thailand, foreign ownership must represent no more than 49%

of a building or development. Foreigners can also acquire up to 99-year leasehold rights

on properties.

The country - and capital Phnom Penh in particular - went through a construction boom

and saw property prices increase exponentially in 2004-2007, only to see them crash by

some 50% in 2008-2011.

Western quality apartments in Phnom Penh (once known as the ‘Paris of the East’) can

be had at $1,000-2,000/m2 and villas up to $3,500/m2. Rental yields on good

apartments in sought-after locations are generally around 5-7% while returns on luxury

villas are rarely higher than 3%.

Sihanoukville is fast emerging as the country’s most popular vacation spot due to miles

of white sands beaches. Modern apartments here start at as little as $500/m2; values

should rise considerably as Sihanoukville becomes a more established destination.

pg_0030

Cambodia has seen very strong economic growth for more than a decade but continues

to be one of the poorest countries in Southeast Asia.

Myanmar,

perhaps the last Asian frontier, is one to watch. One of the wealthiest

countries in Asia in the 1950s and perhaps the most fascinating one for a visitor (at par

with Thailand in terms of historic heritage, and with 1,400 miles of coastline) it could

experience exponential growth once the political situation and isolation improves. There

are signs of the country opening up after initial reforms by the new government, and an

easing of international sanctions appears possible.

Myanmar’s real estate market is largely undeveloped, including in the main cities.

Amidst crumbling colonial-era buildings pockets of newer construction date to the

1990s. When the time comes there will be a huge demand for everything, from hotels to

offices and retail, from serviced apartments to lower-end housing. At present foreigners

are only allowed to lease property for up to 30 years but a relaxation of the foreign

ownership rules is expected as early as this year.

Price discovery is difficult in what is a very inefficient market, so local knowledge and

presence on the ground is essential. The type of apartments (in crumbling blocks with

no lifts) most locals live in sell for as little as $10,000, while the few better quality

properties can cost several hundred thousands. Some exclusive residential properties

have reportedly been changing hands at seven-digit US dollar figures. No housing loans

are available in Myanmar.

Mongolia

is expected to be one of the world’s fastest growing economies over the

next 5-10 years (IMF, World Bank), thanks to exploration of its newfound mineral

resources. (The country’s coal, copper, gold and uranium reserves surpass those of

Kazakhstan, Russia and Australia; it also has significant oil, iron ore and rare earth

reserves.) Foreign direct investment has grown exponentially - from $25 mil in 1997 to

$840 mil in 2008; it is expected to reach $11 billion in the next five years.

Oyu Tolgoi is now the largest copper mine in the world; the country also has some of the

world’s largest coal mines (especially Tavan Tolgoi). Investment in Oyu Tolgoi alone is, at

$6 bil, the size of Mongolia’s annual GDP; the mine should produce approx $7 bil a year

worth of minerals once complete. Conveniently, the country’s main customer, China,

sits right at its doorstep.

Mongolia has just 2.8 million inhabitants, 40% of whom live in the capital. The

population of Ulaanbaatar has increased by 30% since 2007, to approx 1.1 million. Most

of its residents still live either in the traditional gers or in low quality Soviet-era housing

blocks. The economic boom is creating an increasingly wealthy middle and upper class,

resulting in strong demand growth for consumer products as well as good quality

modern housing, the supply of which is very limited.

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Real estate prices in Ulaanbaatar were rising by over 20% a year after 2002 before

dropping back to 2006/7 levels after the market was hit by the global financial crisis.

New(ly) built housing in Ulaanbaatar has seen a significant price growth due to very low

supply of modern properties, but prices are still relatively attractive (at $1,200-

3,000/m2).

The world’s largest miners are setting up in Mongolia and some 50,000 expats are

expected to relocate to Ulaanbaatar within the next five years. These tenants typically

require Western-style housing and amenities, which continue to be in short supply. The

high rental yields (9-13%) currently seen in good quality, modern properties should

therefore not experience too much downward pressure for another few years.

Demand for quality commercial property, including office, warehouse and retail, is also

fast increasing.

Of advantage to investors are low taxes (10% individual and corporate income tax on

earnings up to approx $2.5 mil) and a pro-business environment - the World Bank ranks

Mongolia in the top third on ease of doing business (much above the BRICS and above

several European countries).

Among the risks are Mongolian economy’s high sensitivity to commodity price

fluctuations and dependency on its neighbors China and Russia. 85% of Mongolian

exports go to China while 95% of petroleum product imports and a large proportion of

Mongolia’s electricity come from Russia.

nited

tates

The US now presents some of the best real estate opportunities not only of all

developed countries but also compared to most developing markets. Prices in a number

of states have declined so much that there is deep value to be found. In fact, there are

many locations around the country where properties now sell below replacement cost.

As is always the case, nobody wants to even think about buying real estate now that

prices in many areas have dropped by 50-60% and yields are higher than seen for

decades. Yet just a few years ago at the top of the bubble everyone had to be a home

owner and/or investor. So much for buying low and selling high.

In such a vast country, real estate is very geographically dependent. While some areas

and cities came through the housing crash relatively intact with quite modest falls,

declines for the 10-City and 20-City Composite from the summer 2006 peak through

October 2011 came to 32% (S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices). Then there were the

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true disaster zones like Arizona, Las Vegas, Florida and parts of Southern California that

saw prices crash by up to 60%.

The conditions are very favorable for an investment in inexpensive US real estate - in

particular well located income producing properties in Arizona, Florida, Nevada and

(parts of) California. Prices in many locations are now back to the levels of the early

2000’s (and in fact below early 2000 prices in the case of Las Vegas). Most homes are

priced well below replacement cost, in many cases as much as 40-50% lower than the

cost of rebuilding the property. Sales prices in these locations average $750-1,100/m2,

but prices as low as $500/m2 are not so rare. Another state with abundant

opportunities is Texas. Although it has not suffered as badly as many other regions, real

estate is very affordable and rental returns quite high.

It appears the market is close to bottoming (depending on area) and things are slowly

turning around. Both new and existing home sales are up and housing starts also saw a

modest increase in 2011. Mortgage rates are still at extremely low levels. Rental

demand has been strong and vacancy rates have fallen quite sharply in many cities.

The US economy is also looking considerably healthier than many care to admit. The

unemployment rate has been coming down, consumer confidence has been rising for

several months, holiday retail sales were much stronger than a year ago. Agricultural

production is booming, and a manufacturing revival is well underway (the US has added

more manufacturing jobs than any other developed economy since the start of 2010; in

fact more than the rest of the G7 countries put together). Importantly from a longer

term perspective, the US sits on vast energy resources (in particular natural gas, oil and

coal) that could provide enough power to supply the country for generations.

Of course, given elevated foreclosure rates and negative equity real estate prices could

stay flat for quite a while before eventually lifting off. But when investors are getting 7-

12% net rental returns (as they are in a number of cities), it pays to wait - especially in

the current negative rates environment. The deal is to buy well located, good quality

properties at low valuations for the income they throw off (condos or single-family

homes depending on location and demand).

One thing buyers need to take into account is the high likelihood of increasing taxes –

but this is a worldwide trend, not just a US one. It is a near certainty that people with

assets will be taxed more heavily in the coming years. US real estate taxes - with annual

rates at around 1-2% of market value already some of the world’s highest - are also

likely to rise further to fill the coffers of heavily indebted and deficit running local

governments.

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Markets to avoid

Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, large Chinese cities

Hong Kong (HK), Singapore, Taiwan and mainland Chinese cities have seen the world’s

highest price appreciation in the last couple of years. Despite measures to cool off the

housing markets Singapore and HK prices continued climbing for much of 2011,

although the rate of appreciation was slower than in 2010 and sales volumes decreased

sharply.

High economic growth and negative real interest rates, as well as demand from wealthy

Chinese buyers (who purchase as much as 40% of higher-end units according to Colliers

Intl HK) have been fueling a speculative buying frenzy. Investors have driven real estate

up to nosebleed prices, hoping to find that proverbial greater fool to sell to. Well, there

may not be any such fools left. The market started to turn in mainland China (prices

across Chinese cities have been dropping since October) and prices in HK equally started

correcting in late 2011.

Average prices of higher-end apartments in Singapore were, in 2011, above $20,000/m2

and average prices of top-end homes came to more than $30,000/m2 (according to

Savills); the record sales price of a condo was $58,000/m2. HK prices reached similarly

outlandish levels after a near 70% rise since 2009; according to Savills’ Global Cities

Survey HK is the most expensive residential property market worldwide, with prices 55%

higher than in London.

Unsurprisingly, HK and Singapore properties have the lowest rental yields in the world

(Monaco aside) at 2-3.5%. Only Taiwan is even worse with yields under 2%. (Note that

these are gross yields!)

Australia -

Commodity exporters such as Australia and Canada are, along with much

of the emerging world, proxy China plays. They will inevitably suffer when China slows

down and its insatiable demand for commodities falls off. Investors have been very

enthusiastic for all things emerging markets & commodity producers - including real

estate and the respective currencies. Most of these markets now carry significant

premiums over many developed world assets, and are vulnerable to corrections. For

real estate investors the time to buy in such markets is at the low of the commodities

cycle, not near a high.

Both Australia and Canada have seen a massive housing boom fueled by a sea of debt. It

wasn’t just US and UK home buyers and speculators who had gorged on debt -

Australians and Canadians also levered up to the hilt. While other markets have since

experienced sharp corrections, Australian and Canadian prices are at an all time high.

pg_0034

Australia sits near the top of the list of most overvalued housing markets worldwide.

Sydney and other main cities have, after HK and Vancouver, the most severely

unaffordable housing, according to the latest Demographia International Housing

Affordability Survey. House prices in Australia have reached levels that are double to

triple their historic ratio to household incomes. And Australian households have the

world’s highest debt to disposable income ratio.

Canada - Vancouver -

The Canadian housing boom shared some aspects of the

US boom, including low (5-10%) deposit- and, for a short period, no money down

mortgages. The household debt to income ratio has continued climbing steadily for the

last decade and is now at US and UK levels. The value of housing related debt in Canada

has nearly tripled in the last decade, to C$1.3 trillion (Bank of Canada). A large

percentage of Canadian mortgages are insured by the Canada Mortgage and Housing

Corporation, i.e. the taxpayer (CMHC insurance is required for all mortgages with less

than 20% down payment).

While some Canadian cities offer reasonable affordability compared to household

incomes, Vancouver’s housing is, by any measure, highly overvalued and vulnerable to a

sharp correction. Prices have risen 55% from their 2009 trough to a level 29% above

their prior peak. The average home price reached nearly C$800,000 (according to

CMHC).

Strong Asian demand has provided a boost to already high prices. Thousands of

mainland Chinese have moved to Vancouver (following the earlier waves of immigration

from Taiwan and HK); thousands more invested in (mid range to high end) real estate in

order to park their cash in a stable Western country and/or to set their children up at

Canadian colleges and with eventual Canadian citizenship, all driving prices to what are

now clearly unsustainable levels.

BRAZIL-

There is at present few markets worse for real estate investment than Brazil.

The time to buy was a decade or more ago, not today when the country has the highest

prices in the Americas along with the most overvalued currency in the world.

Investors are always prone to extrapolate and the Brazil euphoria is no exception. The

ridiculously high real estate prices and cost of living as well as the strength of the real

are not sustainable and cannot last in the long term. Cost of living is, in most respects,

higher in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro than in New York City. Office space in Sao Paulo is

more expensive than in Manhattan.

Property prices in Rio have doubled in the last three years and those in Sao Paulo have

increased by more than 80%. Apartments in the best Rio neighborhoods such as

Ipanema and Leblon now cost as much as $6,000-10,000/m2. Apartments in Sao Paulo’s

pg_0035

high-end Jardins area come to $5,000-8,000/m2. These are by far the highest prices in

Latin America as well as higher than those of nearly all US cities. It is important to

remember that Brazil is still quite a poor country; approximately a third of the

population of Rio lives in crime and drug infested favelas (slums) and even more do in

Sao Paulo.

Consumer and real estate lending has grown exponentially in recent years (housing

loans nearly quadrupled between 2007 and 2010), sparking fears of a credit bubble.

Brazilian consumers’ debt service burden already stands at 24% of disposable income

(US consumers had a debt service burden of 14% before the start of the mortgage

crisis). The average Brazilian mortgage-holder’s residential loan debt is estimated to be

around 40% of income (Barclays Capital SP).

There are many countries not listed herein that would also make a poor choice for a real

estate investment at present. They may not be grossly overvalued but may have

unfavorable supply-demand dynamics that will continue to depress prices (and yields) -

Panama City comes to mind as an example. On the other hand, pockets of good

opportunities can be found within countries that are on the whole currently not

attractive real estate investment destinations. A number of countries were not

considered at all due to a lack of reliable data. So just because a market didn’t make it

onto the list, it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take a look at it for yourself. The world is

large and those who open their eyes will always find an opportunity.

If you enjoyed Petra’s Review

Let us know at

ArmstrongEconomics@HotMail.COM

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